Free NFL Bets Week 11
Free bets on the NFL I said last week was a rebound week, but the football gods had other plans. Two straight weeks dropped our season record to 12-8 (60.0%) so we're still profitable, but we have to get the ship back in the right direction. Some trends in the first 10 weeks to get […]

Free bets on the NFL

I said last week was a rebound week, but the football gods had other plans. Two straight weeks dropped our season record to 12-8 (60.0%) so we're still profitable, but we have to get the ship back in the right direction. Some trends in the first 10 weeks to get us started, as always:

  • The winning ATS teams cover 10.4 points per game. The lowest ATS margin was in Week 4, when teams covered 6.9 points per game, and the highest ATS margin was in Week 8, when the teams covered an incredible 18.3 points per game.
  • The score fell off a cliff at week 10. Game totals averaged just 45.7 points, the lowest week of the season and almost two full points shy of the previous low (47, 4 at week 8).
  • 51 underdogs took the win, but only two closed at +300 or better on the moneyline and still won: Dolphins (+320) vs. 49ers and Raiders (+450) vs. Chiefs, both in the week 5. Three teams are +300 or better on the moneyline this week: Raiders (+310), Jets (+360) and Jaguars (+410).

We're facing another tough week, but it's time to get back to the Week 11 wins column:

Dolphins (-3) at Broncos

I always have to precede the movement of the line if I anticipate it. At the time of writing, the Dolphins are -3 against the Broncos. That line will drop to -3.5 at the start of the weekend, and likely to -4 for some pounds on Sunday afternoon. I like it down to -4, but nothing higher than that, I don't recommend betting on both sides. Shop multiple books for the best line. Use Nick Chubb last week as proof of why every fraction of a point is monumental when betting on the NFL.

Another warning, I know this is an incredibly public bet. The Dolphins get over 70% of the bets and 90% of the money. But, I think this line is misjudged due to the Broncos' tendency to rack up points in garbage time and make the final score closer than it should be. Anyway…

Miami is incredibly well trained. Their goal is clearly to be better than their opponents in two of the three phases of the game, with special teams being one per week. The Dolphins have the best special teams unit in the league, and they just don't put their offense or defense in bad positions very often. With such a tight split, every job site will matter, and the special teams play a vital role in that regard. Miami allowed just 54 punt return yards all season, 7th under in the league, and they totaled 300 punt return yards themselves, the best in the NFL.

The Dolphins offense hasn't blown me away since Tua Tagovailoa took over. They've been conservative and smart in their approach, and Tua hasn't turned the buck yet, so whatever they're doing is working. And they won't need to be any better than they've been in recent weeks against a slowly crumbling Broncos defense. They're ranked 17th in the league and after not allowing 30 points in any of their first five games, they've given up at least 30 points in each of their last four.

Denver's offensive is below par and struggling to support readers; they are only 26th in average possession time. With constantly defending on the ground more than attacking, the unit begins to wear down, and it becomes increasingly easier to exploit for opposing offenses.

Speaking of the Broncos' offense, I'm not saying Drew Lock is a great quarterback because he's not, but he's still their starter and he hasn't had more than one practice. limited week. He's doubtful to play, but even if he does, he'll be less than 100% against a Dolphins defense that's really starting to come together well. Miami has the fifth best defense in the league with just 20.2 points per game; Meanwhile, the Broncos are 28th to score with just 20.7 points per game.

If we give the Broncos 20 points, taking into account their average points per game and the authorized average points per game of the Dolphins (I rounded to 20 instead of rounding to 21 to account for a lock injured or a Brett Rypien), we would need 26 Dolphins points to hit the 45.5 game tally that the market has set us. A 26-20 win in Miami would be more than enough to cover the spread here.

Chiefs (-1) / Packers (+8) Six point teaser:

Chiefs Travis KelceKansas City would have been my best bet of the week if they stayed at -6.5 or less, but as soon as the entire Raiders defense landed on the COVID roster, the line jumped to -8. Eight points is too much for me in a road division game, but reducing it to -1 is perfect. It's a great place for the Chiefs and really tough for Las Vegas.

The Chiefs come out of a bye, which is good for any team but especially for Andy Reid's teams. He's 24-5 in his career on a bye and 8-3 with Kansas City. It's also a game of revenge for Kansas City, as the Raiders are the only team they've lost to this year and the only team to have intercepted a Patrick Mahomes pass in 2020. It's hard to beat a team twice. in the same season. , not to mention the chefs. We're not taking the Kansas City moneyline of course, we're still scoring a point, but only 6.1% of games have ended with a winning margin of one point or less; so if the Chiefs win, there really is, really high probability that they will also cover.

On the sidelines of Las Vegas, seven other defensive contributors were added to the COVID list on Wednesday. The Raiders' defense is already near the bottom of the league - 21st overall and 25th against the pass - and essentially losing the entire starting unit won't help them get on the right track. Especially against one of the best offensive teams we've seen in recent memory that has revenge in mind and a whole extra week for the game plan.

I love the value we're getting in Green Bay for the second half of this teaser. We very rarely get the chance to take Aaron Rodgers as a touchdown underdog, so when the opportunity presents itself, we take it. With a teaser, we can increase the spread from +2 to +8; since Rodgers became the starter in 2008, he started and threw at least 10 assists in 179 games. He is the breathtaking lone who has lost 11.2% of those games by more than eight points. I really like these chances.

I also love how the Packers stack up against the Colts, and I think the Colts are overrated based on their win over Tennessee last Thursday. Sure, they won by 17 on the road, but they benefited from a blocked punt, a 44-yard miss and a 17-yard punt by the Titans. The Colts are excellent at stopping the race, and although they are second best against the pass, have they faced a quarterback even close to Aaron Rodgers' talent? In short, no.

Indianapolis faced Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Nick Foles, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Matt Stafford, Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill. So the closest Rodgers skill to starting football is… Stafford? Yikes.

I have a little fear for the Green Bay defense, which is why I don't play them at +2, but their main weakness is against running. And the Colts haven't been able to run the ball all year; they're 28th in the league when it comes to running, and they're averaging less than four yards per carry. The Packers are healthier as well: they expect Davante Adams to play, Allen Lazard also has a chance to play, and Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and David Bakhtiari have all trained in full.

I'm happy to hitch up my wagon to the two best quarterbacks I've ever had the pleasure of watching football play, especially when all we need is a W from one and a blanket from a gap from the size from one touch to the other.

Note: There have been a few late scratches on COVID in recent weeks that have emerged after my weekly post. I can't control the virus, but as some of you listened to my advice and jumped on the lines before moving, only to find a few days later that a key player on the team we are betting on won't play no, here's a bonus in case something unforeseen happens to throw a wrench in our bets.

With Myles Garrett, I skinny with the Eagles +3.5, or even +3 if it drops. The main reason being that the Browns' offense is really bad without Odell Beckham, and they rely so heavily on the run, which is the strength of the Philly defense. The Eagles are also healthy and I think people are overreacting to their loss to an improving Giants side last week in Game 1, all of their injured players have been playing together basically since September. Keep in mind how awful the Buccaneers looked in Antonio Brown's opener, to look like world batsmen the following week after gaining some continuity. I mentioned Myles Garrett before, I think that's a big loss for an already suspicious Browns defense. Carson Wentz has been under terrifying pressure, but without Garrett the Browns really don't generate much pressure.


This is a beginners guide to football betting, written by a beginner ! You might not know this about me, but whilst Ian is a football betting professionnel with a long history of placing football bets, I am not ! I know the digitale and how to make things on it, but I don’t know a lot about .

I do love this site though, so I wanted to learn more about betting so that I can better contribute to the conversations on it. I have been researching things for some time and thought I would write them up as a guide to football betting.

You might wonder why I didn’t ask Ian to write this guide, him being the professionnel, the truth is I thought it would be better coming from someone picking up the ropes. Ian knows so much he might assume you know something you don’t, I don’t know anything so that can’t happen !

These are the two most common way to place bets these days so I wanted to cover them in a little detail. We don’t hide that fact that Ian prefers singles but that doesn’t help you if you don’t know the main differences.

When you bet with an accumulator, all your bets need to win in order for you to be able to claim the money. This makes it much harder to win but oui the reward is far greater. As a new bettor it is very tempting to bet on accumulators because you could see your £10 stake spiral into big bucks pretty quick.

Beginners Guide to Football BettingThis is a beginners guide to football betting, written by a beginner ! You might not know this about me, but whilst Ian is a football betting professionnel with a long history of placing football bets, I am not ! I know the web and how to make things on it, but I don’t know a lot about . I do love this site though, so I wanted to learn more about betting so that I can better contribute to the conversations on it. I have been researching things for some time and thought I would write them up as a guide to betting. You might wonder why I didn’t ask Ian to write this guide, him being the expert, the truth is I thought it would be better coming from someone picking up the ropes. Ian knows so much he might assume you know something you don’t, I don’t know anything so that can’t happen ! Something that you might benefit from is our free tipster email course. It is a free courier course that takes 7 days to complete and by the end of it you should be a bit of an expert ! Some Football Betting TermsI figured I would start off with some betting terms. Stake – This is the amount of money you place on a bet, in other words the amount of money you stand to lose if you don’t win. Accumulator – A football accumulator is a series of solo bets grouped together, if each of the bets comes off then the odds accumulate together. Normally when you hear of people putting a fiver on something and winning a couple of thousand it is because of accumulators. Because each bet needs to win though they can be risky. Handicap – This is a bet that is offered when one team is the clear favourite – Think Brazil vs your local old boys team ! The handicap gives a small advantage to the underdog. For example, there may be a one goal head start given to the underdog. I am going to explain Handicapping more later in this article. Half Time/Full Time – This type of bet is split into two, when you predict the winner of the first half then of the entire game. So you could predict a draw at half time but for the home team to win by full time. Banker – This is basically the closet thing to a certainty as you can get, the tipster is very sure that the bet will land if they consider it a banker. For example we give banker tips to our members. Scorecast – This is when you bet on a player to score the first goal along with predicting the convenable score. Wincast – Very similar to a scorecast but you bet on a player to score and then predict the winner of the game. Minute Betting – This is mentioned a lot when people bet on individual players ( maybe as goal scorers ) normally if the player doesn’t make an appearance the bet is called off, but if the player appears during the normal minutes of the game they are eligible for the bet. 24 Hour Rule – Most betting websites have a rule like this where if a match is postponed the bet only becomes void if the match doesn’t get played within a 24 hour period. So for example if a match was just put back 2 hours the bet would still stand. Over/Under – Overs and Unders are when you bet on the amount of goals being scored, normally it will be over or under an amount, for example over 2. 5 means if there are 3 or more goals. Under 2. 5 would be 0, 1, or 2 goals being scored. DNB – This stands for Draw No Bet. What this means is if the score is a draw you get your money back for your bet. This can be seen as a safer option but you should understand that the odds are usually lower when this is selected. Double Chance – A Double Chance bet is one where you pick a winner and if they win OR it is a draw, you win the bet. If the team you pick loses then you lose the bet. Like DNB the odds are generally lower but it is a safer bet as a result. Bankroll – how much money you have to bet with. We’ve written more about what the bankroll is. HandicapsHandicaps are something that confused the heck out of me for the longest time, so I want to spend a while looking at them in detail. This is such a common question that I have written up a guide to the Asian and European handicapping. Want to learn how to be an expert football bettor for free ? JOIN OUR EMAIL COURSEAccumulators Vs SinglesThese are the two most common way to place bets these days so I wanted to cover them in a little detail. We don’t hide that fact that Ian prefers singles but that doesn’t help you if you don’t know the main differences. When you bet with an accumulator, all your bets need to win in order for you to be able to claim the money. This makes it much harder to win but of course the reward is far greater. As a new football bettor it is very tempting to bet on accumulators because you could see your £10 stake spiral into big bucks pretty quick. Singles on the other hand are not effected by other bets. So if I place £10 on three different matches as singles and 2 of them come in, then I make money on those two bets. The odds aren’t as good if I was to role up all my bets into an accumulator, but the odds of me walking away with some money are much higher.

The main advice here is to find what it right for you. Just because some people swear by accumulators and others swear by singles doesn’t mean you should listen to the loudest voice. Do some research, maybe put some small stakes on a few different ways and see what felt good and what had a good return on your investment.

Beginners Guide to Football BettingThis is a beginners guide to betting, written by a beginner ! You might not know this about me, but whilst Ian is a football betting spécialiste with a long history of placing football bets, I am not ! I know the digitale and how to make things on it, but I don’t know a lot about football. I do love this site though, so I wanted to learn more about betting so that I can better contribute to the conversations on it. I have been researching things for some time and thought I would write them up as a guide to football betting. You might wonder why I didn’t ask Ian to write this guide, him being the professionnel, the truth is I thought it would be better coming from someone picking up the ropes. Ian knows so much he might assume you know something you don’t, I don’t know anything so that can’t happen ! Something that you might benefit from is our free tipster fax course. It is a free fax course that takes 7 days to complete and by the end of it you should be a bit of an professionnel ! Some Football Betting TermsI figured I would start off with some football betting terms. Stake – This is the amount of money you place on a bet, in other words the amount of money you stand to lose if you don’t win. Accumulator – A accumulator is a series of single bets grouped together, if each of the bets comes off then the odds accumulate together. Normally when you hear of people putting a fiver on something and winning a couple of thousand it is because of accumulators. Because each bet needs to win though they can be risky. Handicap – This is a bet that is offered when one team is the clear favourite – Think Brazil vs your local old boys team ! The handicap gives a small advantage to the underdog. For example, there may be a one goal head start given to the underdog. I am going to explain Handicapping more later in this article. Half Time/Full Time – This type of bet is split into two, when you predict the winner of the first half then of the entire game. So you could predict a draw at half time but for the home team to win by full time. Banker – This is basically the closet thing to a certainty as you can get, the tipster is very sure that the bet will land if they consider it a banker. For example we give banker tips to our members. Scorecast – This is when you bet on a player to score the first goal along with predicting the satisfaisant score. Wincast – Very similar to a scorecast but you bet on a player to score and then predict the winner of the game. Minute Betting – This is mentioned a lot when people bet on individual players ( maybe as goal scorers ) normally if the player doesn’t make an appearance the bet is called off, but if the player appears during the normal minutes of the game they are eligible for the bet. 24 Hour Rule – Most betting websites have a rule like this where if a match is postponed the bet only becomes void if the match doesn’t get played within a 24 hour period. So for example if a match was just put back 2 hours the bet would still stand. Over/Under – Overs and Unders are when you bet on the amount of goals being scored, normally it will be over or under an amount, for example over 2. 5 means if there are 3 or more goals. Under 2. 5 would be 0, 1, or 2 goals being scored. DNB – This stands for Draw No Bet. What this means is if the score is a draw you get your money back for your bet. This can be seen as a safer option but you should understand that the odds are usually lower when this is selected. Double Chance – A Double Chance bet is one where you pick a winner and if they win OR it is a draw, you win the bet. If the team you pick loses then you lose the bet. Like DNB the odds are generally lower but it is a safer bet as a result. Bankroll – how much money you have to bet with. We’ve written more about what the bankroll is. HandicapsHandicaps are something that confused the heck out of me for the longest time, so I want to spend a while looking at them in detail. This is such a common question that I have written up a guide to the Asian and European handicapping. Want to learn how to be an expert bettor for free ? JOIN OUR EMAIL COURSEAccumulators Vs SinglesThese are the two most common way to place bets these days so I wanted to cover them in a little detail. We don’t hide that fact that Ian prefers singles but that doesn’t help you if you don’t know the main differences. When you bet with an accumulator, all your bets need to win in order for you to be able to claim the money. This makes it much harder to win but évidemment the reward is far greater. As a new bettor it is very tempting to bet on accumulators because you could see your £10 stake spiral into big bucks pretty quick. Singles on the other hand are not effected by other bets. So if I place £10 on three different matches as singles and 2 of them come in, then I make money on those two bets. The odds aren’t as good if I was to role up all my bets into an accumulator, but the odds of me walking away with some money are much higher. The main advice here is to find what it right for you. Just because some people swear by accumulators and others swear by singles doesn’t mean you should listen to the loudest voice. Do some research, maybe put some small stakes on a few different ways and see what felt good and what had a good return on your investment. Getting your way with the bookiesSomething you will encounter when you start football betting is a range of different online and offline bookmakers. All will have their own way of dealing with things and all will want you to work with them differently. This can seem daunting but we’ve written up a guide on what to look out for and how to state your case if you think a bookmaker has wronged you.

There are two things I have caught myself doing related to being greedy, the first is adding extra teams into an accumulator just because it will bump up my maximum payout. This is almost always a dramatiques idea ! The deuxième thing I have done is bet more money on a team than I initially was going to. You should have a plan for how much you are going to bet and stick to it.

You are not going to win every bet, if you want to become successful at betting on you need to be patient and pick the right bets for you. Never bet more than you can afford to loseBefore I place a bet I always think about the money I am going to be placing on it and think, if I were to lose this money right now would I be OK with that. If the answer is no I won’t place the bet.

They are too unpredictable, you don’t know how much effort the respective teams are putting in and reserve players may get an outing that you weren’t counting on. If the friendlies are before the start of a new season ( they often are ) players will be very aware to not pick up any injuries so might not play as as they normally do.

What I mean by this is that two teams can look a certain way on paper, but if one of those teams has already won the league and the other is fighting to stay in the league there is a very good chance that the team good on paper will be on auto pilot whilst the team playing to stay out of relegation is going to be fighting for their life !

If ever there was a post to comment on with your questions this would be it ! The only stupid question is the one not asked. We’re also really keen on hearing where we can improve this article, so if you still have questions or something wasn’t clear, it was because we’ve done a bad job and we would love you to tell us how to do better. If you’re hungry for more, I can highly recommend our free email course.

Unfortunately a lot of money is wasted because people place bets without really knowing too much about what they are doing. If you know someone like that please feel free to share this with them. The social media share links are below if you’d like to share on Facebook etc.

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